North Korea Essays (7379 words) - Aftermath Of The Korean War

North Korea -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- North Korea: Policy Determinants, Alternative Outcomes, U.S. Policy Approaches (Rep. 93-612 F) Congressional Research Service, Report for Congress June 24, 1993 By Rinn-Sup Shinn, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division* SUMMARY North Korea is undergoing a wrenching phase of adjustment to an uncertain post-Soviet world. Its government is reined in by two major constraints: fear that any political or economic reform would have the same fatal consequence for itself as it had for the former Soviet Union and other erstwhile allies; and fear that the United States, South Korea, and other enemies would stop at nothing to overthrow the communist regime of the North. The United States has a major stake in the outcome of North Korea's effort to deal with its daunting task. The challenge in the North has become compelling as Pyongyang has come up far short of its core policy objectives: political self-preservation, undermining South Korea--and by extension, U.S. military presence in the South; and obtaining economic and security support from the outside world. Facing an obvious need to change, Pyongyang is caught in a dilemma about reform. In the wake of the Soviet collapse, a shaken Pyongyang reaffirmed its resolve t o defend a) its centrally planned, autarkic command economy; b) its monolithic, one-party system identified with the persona of Kim Il Sung, the great leader (and now with that of his son and de facto successor Kim Jong Il); and c) its policy of reunifying the two Koreas on Kim Il Sung's terms. The two Kims still talk as though time is on their side, and that they can outwait U.S. withdrawal from the South. Nonetheless, they seem to recognize that they need to end their self-enforced isolation, to say nothing of their unaccommodating foreign policy posture. A sense of urgency and a siege mentality are real and growing in Pyongyang. In particular, the North's economy, which it has long defined as the real underpinning of political stability and military preparedness, is shrinking by all objective criteria. Still worse, there is no immediate relief in sight. At the same time, Pyongyang is slipping further and further behind Seoul--a situation that has potentially unnerving security implications. Seeking economic help and greater international legitimacy, North Korea in recent years has sought to reconcile with South Korea by promising nonaggression, reciprocal cooperation, and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. But the regime remains doctrinaire, self-centered, and committed to political control, and has repeatedly undercut its soft approaches by reneging on such promises. The United States has also received numerous promises from Pyongyang. A number of policy approaches may be considered by the United States: engagement aimed at inducing Pyongyang into the community of nations; military, economic, and political pressure to underscore U.S. concern for the stability on the Korean peninsula; and outwaiting--letting Pyongyang chart its own transition by refraining from action that can be reasonably perceived in Pyongyang as provocative and threatening, while avoiding any actions that would give legitimacy or assistance to the North Korean regime. INTRODUCTION North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea--DPRK) is a major foreign policy challenge to the United States because of its intractability as well as its threat to 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea. Isolated and self-absorbed, its behavior is widely thought to be as irrational as it is unpredictable. The communist regime in Pyongyang regards the United States as its sworn enemy and the main obstacle to Korean reunification. It has denounced the United States for its forcible occupation and for allegedly turning South Korea into a forward military base from which to plot the collapse of North Korea or to launch a nuclear attack. Since the division of the Korean peninsula in 1945, North Korea has defined its self-preservation in terms of three policy priorities, or core interests: consolidating Kim Il Sung's power base, undermining South Korea to hasten U.S. withdrawal from the South, and securing maximal support from the former Soviet Union and China. These priorities were designed to assure the security of the Kim regime from domestic critics and against perceived threats from the United States and South Korea (Republic of Korea--ROK). Externally, Pyongyang has pursued anti-U.S. and anti-South Korean policies as interrelated and complementary approaches. Forcing the U.S. out of the